Evaluation for Short-Term and Annual Prediction of Earthquakes (ESTAPE)
Jean J. Chu1, Jeanne-Marie Col2
1Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9825, Beijing 100029, China.
Tel.
/Fax: +86-10-6237-5167,
E-mail: jchu@pubIic3.bta.net.cn
2Department of Economic and Social Affairs, DCI-986, United Nations, New York, New York 10017, USA.
Tel.
: +1-212-963-8377, Fax: +1-212-963-2916,
E-mail: col@un.org
Abstract:
Despite the present-day controversy surrounding prediction research, both earthquakes and their predictions continue to take place. The need to use relevant information on these sudden, large disasters is increasingly urgent. The United Nations Global Programme for the Integration of Public Administration and the Science of Disasters has developed an approach to evaluate short-term and annual forecasts of earthquakes. This approach can be used by scientists, public administrators, as well as by the general public to assess the effectiveness and reliability of forecasting reports.
