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Scenarios for the estimation of forest fires in case of climate changes

Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe1, Peter C. Werner2
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Telegrafenberg, PSF 50 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Tel. : 1+49-331-2882586, 2+49-331-2882587, Fax: +49-331-2882695,
E-mail: 1gerstengarbe@pik-potsdam.de, 2werner@pik-potsdam.de

Abstract:
Using a new scenario model the development of forest fires in the region of Brandenburg (Germany) was calculated under consideration of possible climate changes up to the year 2050. The scenario model connects large-scale general circulation model results of future climate development (for instance temperature trend) with observed data of the investigation area.

The Brandenburg region was selected as investigation area because of its forest structure (of prime pines) connected with a high risk of forest fires. The relation between climate and the number of forest fires can be described by the so called "fire index" based on the connection between precipitation and temperature. The scenario results show that an increase of the annual mean temperature of only 1.5 K leads to a dramatic but spatially well differentiated increasing of forest fires.