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Scenarios for the estimation of forest fires in case of climate changes
Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe1, Peter C. Werner2
Abstract: The Brandenburg region was selected as investigation area because of its forest structure (of prime pines) connected with a high risk of forest fires. The relation between climate and the number of forest fires can be described by the so called "fire index" based on the connection between precipitation and temperature. The scenario results show that an increase of the annual mean temperature of only 1.5 K leads to a dramatic but spatially well differentiated increasing of forest fires. |