Climatic forecast of natural disasters and the calculation of economic damage.
Nina Kobysheva, Elena Akentveva
Main Geophysical Observatory, 7 Karleysher Str., St. Petersburg, Russia.
: +7-812-552 94 21, Fax: +7-812-247 86 61
An indirect method for the calculation of damage to the Russian economy by natural disasters (whirlwinds, squalls, fires, sandstorms, fogs of great duration and force, etc.) is presented. Estimates of damage (in US- dollars) are given. A correlation link of natural disasters repetition with indices of winter severity, summer droughts and with cycles of solar and geomagnetic activities is established. This link allows a climatic forecast of natural disasters for Russian territory until the year 2005.