The imminent prediction of the group of strong earthquakes in Jiashi

Jun-Zhi Li1, Zhen-Qiu Ren2, Xiang-Ning Huang
1Earthquake Prediction Research Laboratory, Beijing Polytechnic University, Beijing 100022, China.
Tel. /Fax: +86-10-6739 1682
2Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Tel.: +86-10-6840 8459, Fax: +86-10-6217 5931

In April 1997 a group of earthquakes above M= 6 occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang Province, China. Three days before the quakes, the writers correctly predicted their onset. The paper will introduce the steps taken to produce the prediction, which was then forwarded to the proper authorities. We will examine the process of investigation, the content used, and the variables that led to increased accuracy.

The authors adopted innovative methods in the search for earthquake precursors. Multiple methods were used to analyse the abnormal phenomena, to find the coincidental conditions and to make imminent predictions on the basis of the analysis.

In April 1997, strong earthquakes occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang. We accurately predicted the onset just three days before the event. This imminent prediction was very effective in preparing for this natural calamity. Within 11 days there occurred four continuously disastrous quakes with M>6, yet only nine people died in this area with a population of 300,000. The success should be attributed to the accurate prediction and subsequent precautions taken.