Short-term prediction of space weather and its possible negative consequences

Y. A. Romanovsky, G. F. Tulinov, S. G. Frolov
Institute of Applied Geophysics, Rostokinskaja 9, Moscow 129128, Russia.
Tel. : +7-095-181 4494, Fax: +7-095-187 7513

Due to the increase of solar activity in the solar cycle 1996-2007 the influence of space weather (SW) factors on space and different ground systems as well as on the biosphere will grow. The monitoring and short-term prediction of SW parameters, such as the solar electromagnetic and corpuscular fluxes, the radiation level in near earth space and the ionosphere-magnetosphere conditions, are provided in Russia by the national Heliogeophysical Service (HS). The system has a space segment consisting of on-board instrumental complexes on the satellites Meteor, Resource and Ocean satellites. The ground segment consists of magnetic observatories, ionosphere sounding stations, optical and radar instruments to observe the sun and a main geophysical centre for processing, analysing and presenting SW data and prognosis to end-users. It is of a special importance to develop short-term and operative prognoses of SW factors and to assess their possible negative effects on space systems as well as on specific ground systems such as power stations, pipelines, energy lines. Special HS operator-prognosticator complex, based on artificial intelligence technologies and methods has been developed and is in use, for early warning of SW events and their negative consequences.