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25 seconds for Bucharest

Friedemann Wenzel1, Mihnea C. Oncescu1, Michael Baur1, Frank Fiedrich1, Constantin Ionescu2
1University of Karlsruhe, Geophysical Institute, Hertzstr. 16, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany.
Tel. : +49-721-6084431, Fax: +49-721-71173,
E-mail: fwenzek@gpiwap1.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de
2National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest, Romania.

Abstract:
An early warning system (EWS) for the Romanian capital Bucharest is proposed. The design exploits the stationarity in space of the hypocentres (very clustered), the stationarity of the radiation pattern of large earthquakes (inverse faulting), the relative large epicentral distance to Bucharest (130 km), the direct view between the mountainous epicentral area and the flat Bucharest. All these make the operation of a simple, fast, robust and cheap EWS possible. The warning time is about 25 s with a possible confirmation/rejection stage 1015 s later. A cost-benefit discussion is also presented.