An expert system for earthquake medium-term, short-term and immediate forecasting

Yueqing Zhu
Centre for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, P.O. Box 166, Beijing 100036, China. Tel/Fax: +86-10-62 54 19 85,
E-mail: zhuq@sun.ihep.ac.cn

Unlike to Mexico City, China has no discrete zone with strong earthquakes occurring at large distances between the sources of severe earthquakes and big cities. Therefore, it is difficult to use the difference in velocities of seismic and radio waves to provide early warning signals. However, strong intra-plate shocks occur frequently. Serious disasters force seismologists to find other ways to provide early warning. During the last 32 years, a series of data collection networks has been established to gather data on earthquake-related processes and phenomena. They cover the fields of seismology, geomagnetism, gravity, groundwater physics and chemistry, geodeformation, geo-electricity etc. They are connected by all kinds of communication modes, including wired/wireless and satellite, batch and real-time modes. These data, supplemented by forecasting knowledge, criteria and indices, as well as source rupture experiments and case study statistics, have been used to develop, integrate and put into practice several expert systems. These are used for the forecasting in the long, short and immediate term. This paper describes the ideology, methodology and key techniques for developing the systems, as well as discusses their composition, structure, functions, features and practical effects.