"Early warning systems for hydro-meteorological hazards"

Convenor: R. C. Landis (WMO)

Keynote and Invited Lectures

09:00 - 12:00, Main Hall

09:00
Keynote Lecture

09:45 - 10:00
Coffee Break

Invited Lectures

10:00
The role of the World Weather Watch in mitigating hydro-meteorological disasters
Stefan Mildner, WMO

10:30
Track forecast guidance improvements for early warnings of tropical storms
Russel Elsberry, USA

11:00
Early Warning Systems for the detection and response to severe floods
William J. R. Alexander; South Africa

11:30
Real-time flood forecasting: problems, possibilities and proposed solutions
Ezio Todini; Italy

12:00 - 14:00
Lunch Break

Session 1.1

"Early warning systems for tropical storms"

Convenor: R. Elsberry
(Naval Postgraduate School, USA)

Tuesday, September 8, 1998

14:00 - 16:00

Oral Presentations

14:00
From good TC Track forecasts towards good early warning of intensity changes
Sir James Lighthill †; United Kingdom (Invited Lecture)

14:25
The tropical cyclone warning system in the south-west Pacific
V. Prasad, N. L. Koop; Fiji Islands (Invited Lecture)

14:40
Improving the tropical cyclone warning system and its effective dissemination in the south-west Indian Ocean, Republic of Mauritius
Man Yan Lee, R. Ranjitrai Vaghjee; Republic of Mauritius

14:55
An early warning system for tropical storms in India
S. R. Kalsi; India

15:10
Role of early warning dissemination at community level: Lessons from Gujarat (India) cyclone of June 1998
Manu Gupta; India

15:25
The tropical storm threat to urban areas
B. E. Lee; United Kingdom

15:40
Emergency response management during severe weather, floods and typhoons
Lanying Gao; China

Poster Presentations

15:54
Early cyclone warning system in Andhra Pradesh (India) from 1977-1997 - a case study
Vinod K. Sharma; India

15:57
Disaster management and cyclone warning system in Bangladesh
Monowar Hossain Akhand; Bangladesh

Session 1.2

"Early Warning Systems for Floods"

Convenor: E. Todini
(University of Bologna, Italy)

Tuesday, September 8, 1998

16:30 - 18:30

Oral Presentations

16:30
Satellite monitoring of floods as part of the early warning system
V. Usachev, V. Asmus, A. Volkov, E. Jung; Russia

16:45
Snowmelt forecasting as a contribution to operational flood warning: A system integrating remote sensing data and meteorological model output
S. Voigt, H. Kleindienst, M. Baumgartner; Switzerland

17:00 NN

17:15
Hydro-meteorological tools for flood protection in river basins
G. Malitz, T. Günther; Germany

17:30
Extreme runoff events in small catchments: The need for a proper modelling strategy for early warning systems
D. Gutknecht; Austria

17:45
Using real-time data and a flow prediction model to assist in the operation of the lower Orange River
R. S. McKenzie, K. A. Fair, A.R. Craig; South Africa

17:55
Operational use of real-time flood forecasting: the case of Lake Como
E. Todini, R. Codeluppi; Italy

18:05
GISELE: A new capability for flash flood early warnings over Garonne River sub-basins
F. Helloco, J.-J. Vidal, J.-L. Cheze; France

18:15
The monitoring of flush mountainous lakes of Uzbekistan and contiguous territories
N.E. Gorelkin, V.E. Chub, W. Ahrens; Uzbekistan

Poster Presentations

18:25
An experience of floods mapping on German and Russian rivers using aerial and satellite surveys
V. Usachev; Russia E. Jung; Germany

18:27
An example of hydrological disaster: Haouz Flood
M. Dkhissi; Marocco

18:29
Disposite d'Alerte et de reponse en cas d'Inondation: Exemple Ville de Sidi Bel Abbes (W. Algerie)
A. Mimi; Algeria

18:32
Flood hazard mitigation in volcanic areas
Ezio Todini; Italy

Theme 2

"Early warning systems for the mitigation of geological hazards"

Convenor: R. M. Hamilton
(National Research Council, USA)

Session 2.1

"Early warning systems for earthquakes"

Convenor: J. M. Espinosa-Aranda
(C.I.R.E.S., Mexico)

Tuesday, September 8, 1998

14:00 - 16:30

Oral Presentations

14:00
UrEDAS - The early warning system for mitigation of disasters caused by earthquakes and tsunami
J. Saita, Y. Nakamura; Japan

14:15
On the establishment of an automatic earthquake information broadcast system in Taiwan
Y.-M. Wu, T.-C. Shin, Y.-B. Tsai, K.-W. Kuo; Taiwan

14:30
Earthquake early warning system in Japan
K. Doi; Japan

14:45
European Warning System
F. Tondre; European Council

15:00
Towards an earthquake early warning system for the megacity of Istanbul
J. Zschau; Germany, M. Isikara, O. Ergünay, M. N. Yalcin, M. Erdik; Turkey

15:15
25 seconds for Bucharest
F. Wenzel, M. Oncescu, M. Baur, F. Fiedrich, C. Ionescu; Germany/Roumania

15:30
Early warning success for the 1976 Tang Shan earthquake: a best practice integrating public administration and science
J.-M. Col; UN-DESA, J. J. Chu; USA

15:45
The short and immediate term predictions of the 1995 Menglian earthquake (M=7.3) and the social response capacities
Rong Hui Lin; China

Session 2.1 will be continued at Wednesday

Session 2.2

"Early warning systems for volcano monitoring and eruption warnings"

Convenor: R. I. Tilling
(U. S. Geological Survey, USA)

Tuesday, September 8, 1998

16:30 - 18:30

Oral Presentations

16:30
Volcanic hazard and public response: a Case Study. The Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico and the communities: a case of early disaster prevention
A. Rivera Dominguez; Mexico

16:45
The Merapi-Project: Interdisciplinary monitoring of a high-risk volcano as a basis for an early warning system
J. Zschau, R. Sukhyar, M. A. Purbawinata, B.-G. Lühr, M. Westerhaus; Germany/Indonesia
AVI-file I (1444 KB)   AVI-file II (3487 KB)

17:00
Monitoring activities and disaster mitigation responses at the Soufriere volcano, Montserrat, Caribbean 1995-98
K. Rowley; Trinidad (Invited Lecture)

17:20
A new concept of volcano activity monitoring: The multi-parameter station at Galeras volcano (Colombia)
D. Seidl, D. Bannert, B. Buttkus, E. Faber, S. Greinwald; Germany and D. Gomez, R. Torres; Colombia

17:35
Information and warnings to authorities and to the public about seismic and volcanic hazards in Iceland
R. Stefansson; Iceland

17:50
Early warning for the 1991 eruptions of Pinatubo volcano: A success story
R. S. Punongbayan; Philippines (Invited Lecture)

Poster Presentations

18:10
Diverse responses to eruption warning transmitted via different channels
J. Tayag; Philippines

18:13
Warning for volcanic hazard in Nicaragua
W. Strauch; Nicaragua

18:16
Geochemical monitoring of volcanic activities
J. Erzinger, M. Zimmer; Germany

18:19
Monitoring gases at volcanic fumaroles
E. Faber, S. Inguaggiato, G. G. Valencia, D. Seidl; Germany

18:22
The use of satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomaly in volcano and earthquake early warning systems
Zuji Qiang; China

18:25
Closing Remarks

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